105-56 (65.2%) +122.67 units of profit! (+$122,670)
I have to tell you that this is not the same Red Sox team that won the 2 world series. I actually believe they get swept in this series. The Angels are a hungry bunch of players and yesterday I told you how big Bobby Abreu was to this team. His stats won't light up the scoreboard, but drawing walks in that game was a big part of why the Angels won. I actually waited a long time for the Red Sox not to be the team they were during my six years of college when they won 2 world series. It was annoying and I'm not a Red Sox hater by any stretch of imagination, but I'm glad to see them on their way out as I feel it will be after tonight.
A lot of people were shocked about last night's game but not me. Red Sox are just 3-13 since the All Star Break on the road against teams with winning records. They are 7-15 in their last 22 meetings in LA. Let's just throw out the "hex" or whatever you want to call it because this Angels team is flat out a better team than the Red Sox. First sign of that is the line we get here today I think most people would be giving the Red Sox the edge behind Josh Beckett and public bettors still are but I'm not buying it. Beckett on the road had a 4.13 ERA this year and he was hit hard many times! Although I think he comes up with a big performance against the Angels tonight it won't be nearly enough. In his last 5 starts vs. the Angels he has a 6.17 ERA. In his road starts opponents are hitting 55 points higher in average in just 3 less innings pitched. Why do I like the under then? Beckett is one of the best pitchers in post season history. He's not a bum by any stretch of the imagination I think he'll pitch well giving up 2-3 runs or so, but again that won't be enough with Weaver on the mound at home. I have been on the wrong side with Becket when I thought he would give the Red Sox a much needed win after a loss like he has so many times in the past and it cost me money! Not again tonight I'm not falling into the Beckett trap here tonight.
Jered Weaver at home this year has a 2.82 ERA with a 9-3 record. He had 2 great starts vs. the Red Sox this year 13.2 IP 8 hits, 3 BB and 12K's both home starts. Red Sox again don't hit righties on the road approaching under 4 runs per game per 9 innings vs. RHP this year. I'm just not buying them to revive themselves now 4 games under .500 on the road the Angels can smell the win. Red Sox are 2-6 in their last 8 with Becket as a dog and 0-4 in his last 4 on the road vs. a team with a winning record.
The Under- Under is 21-5-1 in Red Sox last 27 as a rod dog, and 13-6-2 in their last 21 playoff games as a dog. Under is 20-7-1 in Becket's last 28 games when opponents scores 5R + in previous game. Angels on the other hand are under 16-4-1 in their last 21 when their opponents score 2 runs or less in previous game. They are under 15-5-1 last 21 vs. RH starter which shows that they hit lefties just a little better.
